Geneva: El Niño could develop into the strongest event recorded in four decades, the United Nations’ climate agency has warned, as UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres cautioned that the world is entering a “danger zone of extreme weather.”
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said Thursday that the naturally occurring climate phenomenon is expected to intensify to a “very strong” level in the coming months and is almost certain to continue through February.
El Niño is characterized by unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It can trigger widespread changes in global wind, pressure, rainfall and temperature patterns.
“If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began — so literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo told reporters in Geneva.
According to the WMO, El Niño is expected to peak toward the end of this year, although its effects on global climate could continue well into 2027. Ocean heat is released into the atmosphere gradually, which can contribute to higher global temperatures in the following year.
The powerful 2023-24 El Niño contributed to 2024 becoming the warmest year on record. Saulo said the world should not be surprised if that record is broken.
“El Nino is firmly established and will intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, with big impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns and associated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat,” the WMO said.
While El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon and is not caused by climate change, scientists expect it to intensify the heat of a planet already warming due to the burning of fossil fuels and potentially amplify weather extremes.
“El Nino is being supersized before our eyes,” Guterres said.
“The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather,” he said, urging stronger climate action to protect communities.
Saulo warned that the unusually strong El Niño could have serious consequences for communities and economies worldwide.
“This exceptional El Nino… has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world,” she said. “We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods, and we expect these impacts to increase as El Nino intensifies.”
She urged disaster-management authorities and climate-sensitive sectors, including agriculture, health, energy and water, to step up preparations, stressing that there was “no time to lose.”
El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months. Climate conditions alternate between El Niño and its opposite phase, La Niña, with neutral conditions occurring in between.
The WMO said exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific are expected to strengthen further in the coming months, potentially taking the current event to the highest category of “very strong.”
The UN agency said there is an “exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100 percent” that El Niño will persist through February.
The phenomenon can alter weather and climate patterns thousands of kilometres away from the tropical Pacific. Although every El Niño event is different, major episodes are often associated with drought in parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia, disruptions to the Indian monsoon and changing rainfall patterns across tropical regions.
For September-November, WMO forecasts point to an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures across “almost all land areas.” Rainfall patterns are also showing what the agency described as a pronounced and classic atmospheric response to a strong Pacific El Niño.
The index used to measure sea-surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific has strengthened from an average of 1.5°C above normal between May and July.
Weekly readings between late July and mid-August ranged from approximately 2.2°C to 2.6°C above average, indicating that El Niño continues to intensify.
In some areas, subsurface ocean temperatures were recorded at more than 8°C above average during July and early August, further underscoring the strength of the developing event.
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