Beijing: As 2025 nears its conclusion, leading global financial institutions and international organizations are increasingly reaffirming their positive outlook on China’s economic trajectory. Upgraded forecasts highlight expectations of continued resilience, strong policy support, and steady structural transformation within the world’s second-largest economy.

Despite persistent global challenges including geopolitical uncertainties and evolving trade dynamics experts agree that China’s solid economic fundamentals, comprehensive policy toolkit, and rapid industrial upgrading will continue to drive sustainable growth.

Major Forecast Upgrades from Global Financial Leaders
Goldman Sachs recently raised its projection for China’s real GDP growth in 2025 from 4.9% to 5%, with stronger upgrades anticipated for the following years. The firm expects China’s real export growth to reach 5%–6% annually, significantly higher than its earlier estimate of 2%–3%, as Chinese products continue to gain international market share. The report also commended China’s industrial modernization from metals and chemicals to new energy strengthened by coordinated government support in areas such as logistics and financing.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has likewise revised China’s 2025 GDP forecast upward to 5%, while maintaining the global forecast at 3.2%. According to the OECD, China’s expansionary fiscal measures, including income support and a consumption-boosting trade-in program for vehicles and appliances, continue to reinforce domestic demand.

Policy Support and Economic Rebalancing Drive Confidence
International financial institutions are also recognizing the strength of China’s policy response.

Deutsche Bank highlights the positive economic impact of a new 500-billion-yuan policy-based financial instrument, supporting demand from late 2025 into early 2026.

Morgan Stanley forecasts moderate growth in 2026, driven by targeted policy easing, economic rebalancing, and efforts to address excessive competition.

Domestic economic experts share this outlook. Analysts at Everbright Securities point to China’s super-large market advantage and complete industrial ecosystem, supported by a well-equipped macro policy toolbox. Experts from CICC and China Securities further note improvements in trade competitiveness, technology-driven cost reductions, and the emergence of new consumption trends including domestic brands and cultural IP products gaining global traction.

Global Investors Expand Long-Term Commitments in China
Multinational companies continue to scale up investment in China, reinforcing confidence in its long-term development potential. Recent milestones include:

Danfoss inaugurating a major production base in Zhejiang,

Medtronic launching its first digital healthcare innovation center in Beijing,

AP Moller-Maersk opening a flagship logistics hub in Shanghai, representing over 1 billion yuan in investment.

Meanwhile, China’s international economic platforms continue to grow in influence:

The China International Import Expo (CIIE) achieved USD 83.49 billion in intended deals — a record high and 4.4% increase year-on-year.

The 138th Canton Fair in Guangzhou welcomed 310,000+ overseas buyers, with USD 25.65 billion in on-site intended export deals.

Strong Fundamentals Remain Intact
A spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics emphasized that China’s economy continues to operate stably, progress in high-quality development remains firm, and the nation’s resilience and long-term growth potential are unchanged.

As global acknowledgment continues to rise, China stands positioned as a key stabilizer for global economic growth backed by innovation, market scale, and strategic transformation shaping the next phase of sustainable development.

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